The Limits of Water, the Limits of Growth

When a new neighbourhood is planned, the map first shows roads, buildings, and plots. When an investment is announced, its capacity, jobs, and expected revenue take the spotlight. Water is often discussed afterward, as a technical detail. Yet if the water calculations are wrong, the rest of the map may need to be redrawn.

Preparations are continuing for the 2026 United Nations Water Conference. The UN’s announced schedule places the meeting in Abu Dhabi on December 8–10. The conference has not yet taken place; we cannot know its results in advance. But its agenda already raises a question: How seriously do we treat water security as a foundation for our development plans?

The global water bankruptcy framework brought into discussion by the United Nations University this year deepens the debate. Its July 13 statement highlights that, in many places, freshwater is being consumed faster than nature can replenish it. We should not read this as saying every basin faces the same conditions. To me, its central implication is that water cannot be managed on the assumption of an unlimited future supply.

Waiting for rain is not a plan

Our conversations about drought can easily turn into a seasonal wait. A wet winter will ease the problem; a full reservoir will bring relief. Rainfall certainly matters. But a favourable season does not automatically repair a poorly designed pattern of consumption. Temporary relief can conceal a problem that has been accumulating for years.

I believe the first task of water policy is to understand consumption and its connections. When agriculture, industry, households, and ecosystems are managed in separate files, the total pressure on a shared basin can be overlooked. Each institution may consider its own figures reasonable. Added together, those figures may exceed what the resource can sustain.

A population forecast is therefore not enough to support a city’s expansion. Water access for the new settlement, the condition of the network, wastewater management, and the ability to provide services in dry years must be considered together. Trying to resolve these issues after a project is complete can make the most expensive options unavoidable. Planning means seeing alternatives before necessity removes them.

From Diyarbakır, in southeastern Türkiye, the issue must be viewed through both urban life and agricultural production. Comfort in the city and livelihoods in the surrounding countryside are not independent of each other. We need to understand how a decision in one area affects incomes, costs, and prospects in another. Without local measurements, precise claims about shortages would be unjustified. Asking for measurement and a shared accounting is something we can do now.

Reducing water policy to asking individuals to turn off the tap is insufficient. Household conservation can be valuable. But if network losses, irrigation choices, and production processes are excluded from the discussion, the scale of responsibility has been narrowed. An administration that asks residents to be careful should also disclose the losses and efficiency of the system it manages.

Technology can help, but installing sensors does not end a management problem. Teams, maintenance budgets, and decision-making authority are needed to act on measured losses. If data accumulates in a report, a fault is located, and no repair follows, digitalisation has sharpened the picture without changing the outcome. The value of a smart system lies in improvements on the ground.

Include people in the water account

UNESCO’s 2026 World Water Development Report highlights inequalities in access to water and sanitation. Safe and affordable access cannot be secured by the mere presence of infrastructure. A household’s ability to reach a service and its ability to afford that service are different things. Water policy must consider efficiency and the protection of basic needs together.

Offering the same solution to every user may therefore fail to deliver fairness. A family meeting essential needs and a high-consumption activity are not in the same position. I believe we should discuss an approach grounded in regular, understandable consumption data that protects basic access and encourages reductions in waste. Its details require expertise and public oversight suited to local conditions.

We cannot leave farmers’ incomes out of discussions about agricultural change. Someone asked to adopt a different production method needs access to markets, training, and support during the transition. If a water-conserving choice is economically unsustainable, it will remain a proposal on paper. Efficiency should be assessed through both reduced water use and the protection of livelihoods.

In industry, a new investment’s water demand should be understood from the outset. Reuse, process design, and, where appropriate, treated-water options should not be left until the end. Not every technical solution suits every activity; cost, energy demand, and health requirements must also be considered. Vision means comparing options within real constraints, rather than proclaiming a single technology the answer.

The water needs of ecosystems should not be treated as unused surplus. The continuity of a river, a wetland, or a groundwater system affects the conditions of life around it. Weakening that continuity to increase today’s production may erode the foundations of production in later years. The conditions under which a consumed resource renews itself belong in the growth calculation.

Türkiye’s ambition in this field should extend beyond building new facilities. We can develop open data at basin level, investments whose results can be tracked, and shared plans across institutions. Alongside the number of projects launched, we can assess success through service reliability and the economic and social value produced per unit of water. This is a direction I propose, not an outcome that will happen automatically.

Thinking about the future sometimes means asking a smaller question before drawing a large building: What water will sustain the life we are planning? A society that asks that question early has not abandoned growth. It is building a more durable foundation for it. Recognising the limits of water means protecting tomorrow’s possibilities today.

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